Bounded set of Economic Uncertainty and Robust Viability

Samuel BATES, Valérie Angeon, Anna Désilles and 
july, 2018
Publication type:
Paper in peer-reviewed journals
Natural Resource Modeling
Keywords :
arming system, Agroecology, Economic uncertainty, Viability theory
Uncertainty occupies a major place in the literature, both when it is being de…ned and when it is being measured. The mathematical vi- ability theory (MVT) framework provides useful concepts to go beyond the probabilistic views of uncertainty that are not able to capture all forms of uncertainty, particularly in the absence of statistical regularities. Bounded-set uncertainty can help to analyze changes in the evolutionary conditions that a¤ect ecological and social systems with probabilistic or non-probabilistic distributions. This paper introduces uncertainty into a viability model by associating stochastic and bounded-set uncertainty related to sales price as a driver of economic uncertainty. Based on an illustration of agro-ecosystems, the model identi…es decision rules that guarantee viability. The larger the initial crop portfolio for sequential di- versi…cation is, the lower the costs to belong to the viability kernels will be, regardless of economic and environmental constraints. The diversi…- cation of farming systems transforms their complexity into an advantage against uncertainty, which opens up numerous viability trajectories.
    author={Samuel BATES and Valérie Angeon and Anna Désilles and 
           Patrick SAINT-PIERRE },
    title={Bounded set of Economic Uncertainty and Robust Viability },
    doi={10.1111/nrm.12186 },
    journal={Natural Resource Modeling },
    year={2018 },